by Shadow Catcher » Fri Oct 01, 2010 8:13 pm
A number of First Nations tribes felt that you had to weigh the effect of a decision for seven generations, not a bad idea.
I am often mindful of the laws of unintended consequences proposed by
Robert K. Merton who listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences,
1. Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis)
2. Error (Incorrect analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
3. Immediate interest, which may override long-term interests
4. Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
5. Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated.)
The relevance paradox where decision makers think they know their areas of ignorance about an issue, and go and obtain the necessary information to fill that ignorance, but neglect certain other areas of ignorance, because, due to not having the information, its relevance is not obvious, is also cited as a cause.